Policy Risks Loom Large for Markets

Nov 27, 2024

Post-election market euphoria has faded and policy uncertainty is rising. How should you invest?

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • U.S. federal debt could reach more than $50 trillion by the middle of the next decade, raising concerns about government spending and economic growth.
  • Potential U.S. tariffs could provoke international trade retaliation, affecting U.S. companies with significant overseas revenues.
  • Investors may want to shift from “Trump trade” outperformers to sectors like financials, energy and real estate.

The S&P 500 Index surged to new all-time highs following the decisive Republican victories in the U.S. election. Since then, however, it has begun to trade in a narrower range as market ebullience has faded. Investors now are grappling with policy uncertainty heading into 2025.

 

Two recent signals illustrate investors’ concerns:

 

  • A meaningful move higher in the Treasury “term premium,” a component of yields that often reflects the additional return bond investors demand for potential policy missteps.
  • A surge in the U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty, or EPU, index, which analyzes the frequency of mentions in major newspapers of words associated with economic uncertainty, to levels associated with the COVID pandemic and the 2007-2008 financial crisis.

 

With investors closely watching potential policy shifts, Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee thinks it’s worth considering the limits and constraints on policy, particularly around proposed tax reductions, U.S. government spending cuts and tariffs. Here are a few questions to consider. 

Considering Constraints

As post-election market ebullience fades, policy uncertainty is rising, especially around the government budget. Learn what this means for investors.

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  1. 1
    How much can the U.S. government actually afford to cut taxes?

    The government’s deficits and debt growth could become increasingly unsustainable. Consider three scenarios:

     

    • If there is no change to existing policies, and key provisions of President-elect Donald Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) expire on schedule at the end of 2025, the U.S. government is set to run a $2 trillion annual deficit for the next decade. That brings its total debt to more than $50 trillion.
    • If the TCJA personal tax cuts are extended, as anticipated, they would add $3.7 trillion to the cumulative debt over the next 10 years, according to estimates by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.
    • Finally, if the new administration enacts all of Trump’s campaign promises, such as eliminating taxes on tips and removing state and local tax (SALT) deduction caps, the 10-year increase in debt would be close to $6 trillion.

     

    Higher total debt means higher spending to fund interest payments. The U.S. government pays about 17% of its revenues to the owners of Treasury bonds. If rates are unchanged, the cost of servicing the federal debt over the next 10 years could grow significantly larger, even with no changes to existing policy. And if rates are higher than they have been in the past decade, which is possible, debt payment could significantly crowd out other government spending, ultimately hindering growth.

  2. 2
    How much government cost-cutting is realistically possible?

    Consider the breakdown of the government’s projected annual spending obligations of about $7 trillion:

     

    • About $4 trillion is mandatory spending in areas such as Social Security, health care and veterans’ programs.
    • About $1 trillion goes to servicing debt.
    • Roughly $850 billion goes to defense spending.
    • This leaves non-defense discretionary spending at around $1.15 trillion, which currently encompasses a wide range of programs and services, including public health, education, transportation, environmental protection, housing assistance, science research and international affairs.

     

    Even if the new administration eliminated 100% of these non-defense discretionary costs—which is highly unlikely—the deficit would still run close to $1 trillion. Tax cuts would push the deficit even higher. As noted, persistent deficits may lead to higher interest payments at the expense of other policy priorities and ultimately stunt long-term growth. 

  3. 3
    How will other countries react to tariffs?

    At any given time, global trade is a zero-sum game. Tariffs imposed by the U.S. may be effective at redirecting incentives and trade flows, but when countries lose export share, they will clamor to regain it. That could mean building new trade partnerships, depreciating their currencies or otherwise retaliating to maintain their trade balance.

     

    S&P 500 companies derive roughly one-third of their profits from non-U.S. customers and, thus, may be vulnerable to such reactions—especially U.S. exporters, U.S.-based multinationals and the so-called Magnificent 7 tech companies, which derive substantial revenues from abroad and are deeply integrated into international trade and digital infrastructure.  

Portfolio Moves to Consider

What does this uncertainty mean for investment portfolios?

 

Investors should consider reducing outsized holdings in the Magnificent 7 and other “Trump trade” outperformers.

 

Policy shifts are likely to produce new market leaders in 2025, and stock picking will be critical. The Global Investment Committee favors financials, energy, residential real estate, domestically focused industrials and branded consumer goods manufacturers.

 

Long-term investors should focus on rebalancing and maximizing diversification among stocks, bonds, real assets, hedge funds and private investments.

 

This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Weekly report from November 25, 2024, “Considering Constraints.” Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy. Listen to the audiocast based on this report. 

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