Pay Attention to Earnings

Nov 5, 2024

Mixed results on corporate earnings and lagging profit growth imply a more cautious outlook than the stock market’s optimism would suggest.

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • Despite a bullish equity market, mixed corporate earnings may signal caution for investors.
  • Struggles with profit growth leave stocks little room to maneuver in a market that is priced for perfection.
  • Investors may want to rebalance their portfolios with a focus on maximum diversification among stocks, bonds, real assets, hedge funds and private investments. 

Many investors seem to be in a state of suspended animation, reluctant to take action and struggling to understand which market and economic signals are most important. That’s understandable. After all, we’re just coming off one of the most divisive and closely contested presidential elections in modern American history—one in which the potential implications for fiscal policy are significant—while the U.S. Federal Reserve approaches its next policy meeting, with fresh macroeconomic data on the U.S. economy that combine to paint a complicated picture.

 

The bond market has reflected this uncertainty in recent weeks, sending Treasury yields higher to signal caution. Meanwhile, the equity market continues to trade around its all-time highs, anchored on investor hopes for an economic “soft landing,” continued Fed rate cuts, a potentially friendlier political backdrop and stronger corporate profit growth. However, equity investors may be missing critical signals from corporate earnings.

Keeping an Eye on Earnings

To be clear, investors’ hopes for the macro economy have held up so far. Since the September start to the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle, evidence of a soft landing has been consistently building. For instance, third-quarter 2024 GDP growth, released last week, is once again robust, at 2.8%. It was driven by exceptionally strong spending, which grew at an annualized rate of 3.7%, the best pace since early 2023. This aligns with the surging consumer confidence as measured by The Conference Board. 

 

However, macro dynamics aren’t the entire story. Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee believes that equity investors may be overlooking the importance of corporate earnings fundamentals, which seem to provide less evidence to support investors’ optimism. Consider the following:

  1. 1
    Corporate earnings reveal underwhelming results.

    About 75% of U.S. companies have reported their third-quarter 2024 earnings, and results have been less than encouraging. Coming into the reporting season, analysts aggressively lowered their expectations, effectively creating the illusion of above-average “surprises.” But according to independent researcher Bespoke, only about 58% of companies have achieved higher revenue than expected, which puts this quarter in the unimpressive 30th percentile when comparing results since 2001. On profits, about 65% have beaten expectations, which is about average. 

  2. 2
    Expectations for future profit growth are lofty.

    The S&P 500 Index is currently showing overall profit growth of about 6.7% year-over-year. Excluding the “Magnificent 7” stocks, that figure falls to just around 2%. Either way, these compare poorly with the ambitious growth expectations of 10% for the fourth quarter and 15% for 2025.

  3. 3
    Profit margin forecasts seem elusive.

    Data from FactSet shows that net margins for the S&P 500 are on track to come in at 12%. This falls significantly short of analysts’ expectations of 13% to 13.5% net margins in 2025—levels that would represent all-time highs. 

  4. 4
    Earnings revisions are increasingly negative.

    Companies’ forward guidance and analysts’ earnings revisions may be starting to reflect weakening fundamentals. In fact, earnings revisions are the most negative they have been since December 2022, and nearly 9% of companies are cutting forward guidance. S&P 500 composite earnings for 2024 are now expected to come in around $239 per share, down about 2% from forecasts a month ago. Next-year forecasts have also fallen, by as much as 5% from their high in September, to $274 per share. 

What Should Investors Do Now?

Toward the end of 2024, Fed policy and Washington’s fiscal stance may soon come into sharper focus, but prospects for earnings achievement could stay murky. Investors should focus on realistic forecasts and earnings achievability.

 

Consider rebalancing your portfolio to help diversify among stocks across regions and sectors, while seeking to ensure that fixed income investments are appropriately balanced across short- and long-term bonds. Look to further diversify with real assets and hedge funds, as well as private investments in secondaries, infrastructure and real-estate focused funds. 

 

This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Weekly report from November 4, 2024, “Focus on Fundamentals.” Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy. Listen to the audiocast based on this report. 

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