Stocks’ Momentum Masks Risks

Jan 8, 2025

Chasing trends led to big gains in 2024. But underperformance in December may be a sign of things to come.

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • Extraordinary returns for the fastest-rising U.S. stocks played an outsized role in the market’s overall advance in 2024.
  • However, investors who crowded into popular “momentum” trades may be overlooking pockets of weakness and stretched valuation multiples in benchmark equity indices.
  • Lackluster U.S. stock performance in December suggests the momentum-chasing trend may fade in 2025 as financial conditions potentially tighten.
  • Consider active stock-picking in 2025, favoring financials, energy, residential real estate and certain domestically focused manufacturers. 

As 2025 begins, investors are likely to remember two major themes that helped power the S&P 500 Index to a second straight year of more than 20% returns in 2024: the concentrated outperformance of the so-called Magnificent 7 mega-cap tech names and the dominance of U.S. stocks over other global markets.

 

However, investors may be overlooking the outsized role that the “momentum factor” played in the market’s 2024 advance. “Momentum” refers to the tendency for stocks that have recently performed well to continue rising in the near term, often amid easy financial conditions like those that prevailed for much of last year.

 

Consider that while the S&P 500 rose about 23% in 2024, the stocks with the strongest 12-month momentum (i.e., those rising the fastest for that time frame) were up an extraordinary 58% for the year, outperforming all other “factors,” including growth- and value-oriented equities, by at least 38 percentage points.

 

When momentum drives stock gains this powerfully, it indicates investors are avidly chasing the market’s trends—and potentially overlooking its risks, particularly if financial conditions are set to tighten. Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee highlights two areas of concern:   

 

  • Underlying pockets of weakness: When investors drive market gains by crowding into the leading names, it can distort their perception of performance disparities underneath the surface of the overall market. For example, although the S&P 500 gained 23% overall, about one-third of its stocks were actually down for the year. The median stock rose less than 10%.
  • Lackluster earnings: In momentum-driven markets, investors may also rapidly bid up stocks without commensurate gains in company profitability. Case in point: The S&P 500’s 65% price return over the past two years belies lackluster earnings growth of only 7.6%.

Is Momentum Fading?

In this light, investors should seriously consider the fact that stocks fell, particularly the market’s leaders, throughout December, as it may be a harbinger of things to come in 2025. By one measure, momentum-driven stocks were down 4.5% for the month, underperforming the overall index, which dipped 2.5%, as financial conditions tightened.

 

If momentum is fading, it signals that the market may be shifting from the anticipatory “dream” phase, driven by investors’ expectations and optimism about future growth potential, to the “show me” phase, in which companies’ ability to deliver on earnings targets matters more.

 

In short, it’s no longer simply about the chase—it’s about the results.

How to Invest

With that in mind, the Global Investment Committee emphasizes active investing over passive, and quality and value over momentum.

 

Stock-picking will be critical in 2025. We favor financials, energy, residential real estate and domestically focused manufacturers of industrials and branded consumer goods.

 

Long-term investors should focus on rebalancing portfolios and pursuing maximum diversification among stocks, bonds, real assets, hedge funds and private investments.

 

This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Weekly report from January 6, 2025, “Mo-Momentum?” Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy. Listen to the audiocast based on this report. 

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