Rising Inflation May Challenge Stocks

Dec 18, 2024

In a major shift, the U.S. may be entering a new era of inflationary growth, posing risks to equities. How can investors prepare?

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • The U.S. appears to be shifting from an era of cooling inflation in a steady economy, to one in which price pressures rise alongside growth.
  • Recent data show inflation is picking back up, challenging investors’ expectations for further Fed rate cuts and equity-market gains.
  • Morgan Stanley recommends maximum diversification among stocks, bonds, real assets, hedge funds and private investments.

One of the hallmarks of the last 15 years in U.S. stock markets has been a belief among many investors that the U.S. is operating in a globalized world of cooling inflation and steady economic growth. This “disinflationary” growth trend has come with lower interest rates, solid company earnings and strong consumer confidence, supporting equity valuations.

 

But does that view still reflect reality? Contrary to the popular narrative in markets, Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee believes we are now more likely in a “reflationary” world, in which government policy may spur economic growth but also stoke inflation—posing risks to stocks.

 

Equity investors don’t seem to have embraced that view yet. Heading into mid-December, markets were pricing in a nearly 100% chance that the Federal Reserve would cut its policy rate another 25 basis points, reflecting expectations that inflation would continue to cool while growth would remain solid. While the Fed did indeed make that cut on December 17-18, we believe investors still need to pay attention to several “reflationary” signals.

 

  • Inflation appears to be heating back up: The headline consumer price index (CPI) rose at a 2.7% annualized pace in November, up for a second consecutive month, driven by higher prices for food and manufactured goods. “Core” CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.3% year-over-year for the second month in a row. In addition, the Producer Price Index showed wholesale prices up 3% year-over-year in November, above analysts’ forecasts. And all of this is despite the fact oil prices are down 20% since March and gasoline pump prices—a big portion of U.S. consumers’ budgets—are the lowest they have been since 2021.
  • Small business confidence is surging: According to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), optimism among U.S. small businesses soared 8 points, the most on record, in November to its highest level in more than three years. Such readings are thought to bode well for hiring and capital spending intentions. Taken at face value, they suggest the Fed should not be worried about softening labor conditions, limiting its incentive to cut rates much further.    

 

A New ‘Reflationary’ World?

Those aren’t the only signs that a reflationary shift may be underway. In addition to growth-stimulating fiscal and monetary policies, two major drivers of disinflation – globalization and immigration, which keep prices down by increasing competition and bolstering labor markets – appear to be in retreat. Additionally, two more key developments bolster our confidence in this paradigm change.

 

  • Gold and silver have outperformed the S&P 500 this year: While the benchmark U.S. stock index is up a remarkable 27% this year, the precious metals have gained 30% and 34%, respectively. When real assets like gold and silver outpace stocks, it suggests investors may anticipate inflation.
  • The economy appears less sensitive to changes in interest rates: For example, recent Fed rate cuts have done little to reinvigorate the U.S. housing market, as the majority of homeowners either own their homes or hold mortgages below 4% while new 30-year mortgages are still pricing well above 6%. This type of “rate insensitivity” constrains policymakers in their efforts to manage price pressures or support economic growth through tools such as rate hikes and cuts.  Massive income disparities exacerbate the challenge: The richest households and largest corporations have more cash to spend, hold greater sway over the economy and enjoy more income from higher rates, which stimulates spending and spurs inflation.

 

Portfolio Implications

Equity investors and, to a certain extent, the Fed still appear anchored in the presumption of a globalized, disinflationary backdrop. However, the Global Investment Committee is skeptical. The implication is that the potential for policy mistakes is rising and the odds of a “goldilocks” scenario for equity markets are falling.

 

In 2025, it’s unlikely we’ll see both more cuts and disinflationary economic growth accelerate. We think growth will disappoint first, and further Fed action will be constrained, which might open the door for “stagflation,” in which the economy falters as inflation persists.

 

Investors should consider eliminating large portfolio concentrations in the “Magnificent 7” mega-capitalization tech stocks and other recent “Trump Trade” outperformers. Policy dynamism next year is likely to produce new market leadership, and stock picking will be critical.

 

We favor financials, energy, residential real estate and domestically focused manufacturers of industrials and consumer goods. Healthcare now looks to be oversold as well, presenting a potentially attractive entry point for investors.

 

Long-term investors should focus on rebalancing portfolios and pursuing maximum diversification among stocks, bonds, real assets, hedge funds and private investments.

 

This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Weekly report from December 16, 2024, “Losing the Plot.” Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy. Listen to the audiocast based on this report. 

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