Four Reasons to Buy Japanese Stocks Now

Aug 14, 2024

Recent market chaos has presented an opportunity to invest in a resurgent Japan.

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • The Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) is at a historically low valuation following recent volatility.
  • However, structural changes underway in Japan – including the country’s economic rebound, corporate reforms and government incentives driving money into Japanese stocks – indicate long-term potential.
  • Consider adding geographic diversification to your portfolio by taking advantage of the strong U.S. dollar to buy oversold international assets, particularly Japanese stocks.

Investors may be forgiven for feeling a bit paralyzed at the moment, after a wild week in markets. U.S. equities came off their highs and interest rates around the world fluctuated dramatically, while Japanese equities fell into a bear market.

 

At the center of much of the drama was Wall Street’s popular “yen carry trade,” in which speculative traders borrow in a cheap yen to invest in higher-yielding U.S. assets. Interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan as well as appreciation in the yen touched off an unwinding of this trade and contributed to the deep losses in Japan’s equity markets in recent weeks.

 

Emerging from the market chaos, however, Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee sees an outstanding opportunity to invest in Japanese stocks. The Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) is at a historically low valuation of around 12x forward earnings, compared to an average of about 14x over the last 10 years. This creates an attractive entry point for investors to potentially benefit from possible gains in Japanese asset values over multiple years as structural changes take hold in the country.

 

We remain bullish on Japan for at least four key reasons:

  1. 1
    Japan’s economic recovery is powering consumption and capital spending.

    Remember that the Japanese economy spent about three decades in a deflationary malaise. Now, a strengthening labor market—with annual wage gains above 5%, a growing percentage of people working or seeking jobs, and record-low unemployment—is reigniting consumer spending. Additionally, currency dynamics are still favorable, supporting exporters. As a result, many Japanese companies are ready to spend on capital projects, with 2025 investment spending expected to hit its highest levels in the country’s history.

  2. 2
    Companies are adopting investor-friendly reforms.

    Specifically, we expect to see more companies publishing their profitability goals, more provisions for minority shareholders to demand transparency and more sanctioned avenues for shareholders to oust underperforming management teams. Finally, as global capital-markets activity picks up, an acceleration in deal-making could help unlock shareholder value.

  3. 3
    Companies are also returning more capital to shareholders.

    More than half of Japanese companies surveyed by Morgan Stanley are planning to increase dividends this year, well above the long-term average. Perhaps most importantly, share buybacks are running at roughly 4x the average of the last decade.

  4. 4
    Government incentives are driving money into stocks.

    The government has embraced programs to stimulate domestic savings in equity-linked investments. This is driving new flows into Japanese stock markets, which for decades strained to attract new capital from consumers. The new Nippon Individual Savings Accounts (NISA), a tax-advantaged stock-investment program, are a case in point. New account openings have more than doubled in the six months through June 2024, with account sizes quadrupling over that period.

Portfolio Moves to Consider

Occasionally, excessive volatility can create significant mispricings in financial markets and, thus, opportunities for investors with extra funds to deploy. We think recent events have created just such an opportunity.

 

Investors should consider adding geographic diversification to their portfolios, possibly taking advantage of the strong U.S. dollar to buy international assets that have been oversold in the recent global correction. Opportunities in Japan appear especially attractive. Look to own positions on an unhedged basis, as we expect a gradually stronger yen.

 

This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Weekly report from August 12, 2024, “Buy Japan.” Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy. Listen to the audiocast based on this report.

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