Will Broader Market Gains Last?

Jul 24, 2024

As the “Magnificent 7” stocks’ momentum fades, a broader swath of the market is resurgent. What stocks might come out ahead?

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • Major U.S. equity indices have seen a shift in gains from big tech to a wider range of stocks.
  • Large-cap “cyclical” names exposed to global markets are likely to benefit from falling interest rates and a potentially weaker U.S. dollar.
  • On the other hand, smaller stocks face profitability issues, and analysts are cutting estimates of future performance.
  • Consider the equal-weighted S&P 500 Index or active stock-picking with a focus on large-cap cyclicals in sectors like financials, energy, industrials and residential real estate. 

After a summer of virtually uninterrupted record-setting by the S&P 500 Index, there’s been a stunning shift: Gains have faded for the clutch of mega-capitalization technology stocks, known as the Magnificent 7, that drove the index to new highs over the past two years. Meanwhile, many other stocks, both large and small, are now rallying.

 

What has caused the market’s gains to be more broadly distributed? Markets like certainty, and recent data have given investors greater confidence in the prospect of an economic “soft landing” that brings lower interest rates and slower-but-still-solid growth—a backdrop that should benefit a wider array of equities. In addition, clarity may be emerging on the policy front: While it remains to be seen how a new Democratic presidential nominee may affect the odds in the U.S. election, as of last week, market-based forecasts suggested higher probabilities of a Republican presidential win in the 2024 U.S. election, which could usher in business-friendly deregulation and extension of tax cuts.

 

The question for many investors now is whether the market’s broad-based gains can persist. As the Magnificent 7 stocks’ momentum wanes, Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee is optimistic about the other 493 stocks in the large-cap index, particularly quality “cyclical” stocks in industries such as financial services, energy and industrial goods, whose performance tends to rise and fall with the economy. However, we are less sanguine about small-cap stocks.

Bullish on Bigger Stocks

Not only could large-cap cyclical companies benefit from falling interest rates, but such businesses, especially those that are exposed to global markets, can also benefit from a potentially weaker U.S. dollar that can boost sales internationally as their products are more affordable to foreign buyers.  

As the Magnificent 7 stocks’ momentum wanes, Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee is optimistic about the other 493 stocks in the large-cap S&P 500 Index.

Other reasons to like large stocks:

 

  • While earnings growth for the Magnificent 7 has long outpaced the rest of the index, recent analyst estimates suggest this trend may reverse over the second half of 2024 and into 2025, with profitability picking up for the other 493 stocks while slowing for the big tech names.
 
  • Consider the historical performance of the cap-weighted S&P 500 (which gives the most weight to the biggest stocks, like the Magnificent 7) relative to the equal-weighted version of the index (which holds the same amount of each stock and thus is a better proxy for the other 493). Only twice before has the cap-weighted S&P 500 beat the equal-weighted version by such a wide margin (in the late 1990s and the late 2010s), and both times, the reversal of this dynamic was fierce and persistent. In fact, history suggests that when market breadth accelerates to recent levels and the equal-weighted index is making new all-time highs, it outperforms the cap-weighted one over the next six months 80% of the time.      

Cautious on Small Caps

Smaller stocks are cheap, especially relative to mega caps, but that is not a reason to overlook potential drawbacks. First, a huge portion of recent small-cap gains appear to be derived from a likely short-lived wave of “short covering” by hedge funds (i.e., when funds buy back borrowed securities to close out their bearish positions). 

Smaller stocks are cheap, especially relative to mega caps, but that is not a reason to overlook potential drawbacks.

Consider this, as well: Some 60% of the stocks in the smaller-cap Russell 2000 Index struggle with profitability. While lower rates tend to benefit smaller companies in particular, the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cuts will likely be too slow and too shallow to resolve this deeper profitability issue. On top of that, analysts are still cutting their estimates of future performance for small-cap stocks, and even potentially advantageous changes in tax policy, should Republicans prevail in the U.S. election, may still take time.

How to Invest

Considering all this, the Global Investment Committee prefers large caps to small caps, and sticks with our preferences for active stock-picking and the equal-weighted S&P 500.

 

Keep in mind the importance of being discerning, and watch for opportunities in large-cap quality cyclicals, in sectors like financials, energy, industrials, aerospace and defense, select power generation and grid infrastructure, and residential real estate investment trusts (REITs). Meanwhile, avoid chasing recent gains in small caps, as their rally is likely not sustainable.

 

We continue to recommend greater exposure to investments in Japan, gold, hedge funds and investment-grade credit.

 

This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Weekly report from July 22, 2024, “Rotation Duration.” Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy. Listen to the audiocast based on this report. 

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