Insight Article Desktop Banner
 
 
2025 Outlooks
  •  
décembre 18, 2024

2025 Private Credit Outlook

Insight Video Mobile Banner
 
décembre 18, 2024

2025 Private Credit Outlook


2025 Outlooks

2025 Private Credit Outlook

Share Icon

décembre 18, 2024

 
 

Robust Private Equity Activity has Potential to Bolster Private Credit

 
KEY POINTS
1

Sponsored middle market loan activity remained relatively resilient during the past year, partly supported by demand for incremental or add-on financings.

2

We believe direct lending deal flow will continue to increase with generally constructive financing markets, substantial private equity dry powder in need of deployment and increased pressure to return capital to investors.

3

We see opportunity for growth across the diverse private credit landscape including asset-based lending, opportunistic capital, the unsponsored deal segment, growth companies requiring hybrid capital and real estate lending.

 
 

What We Are Seeing
Private credit expanded to approximately $1.5 trillion at the start of 2024, up from $1 trillion in 2020, and is estimated to soar to $2.6 trillion by 2029.[1] Amid tighter bank lending, borrowers continued to value the speed, certainty and flexibility of private credit solutions. Sponsored middle market loan activity remained relatively resilient during the past year, partly supported by demand for incremental or add-on financings.

Increasing financing costs put pressure on some borrowers in older deals, but overall credit quality has been consistent in the past year. We expect deal flow will continue to increase amid generally constructive financing markets, with private equity (PE) focused on deploying its substantial dry powder and returning capital to founders. PE dry powder is forecast to close out 2024 at a record high $1.6 trillion.[2]

What We Are Doing
Amid the current economic environment, we continue to take a proactive approach, which includes closely analyzing companies’ earnings and free cash-flow generation. As always, we focus on maintaining a portfolio that is diversified across sectors and we avoid deeply cyclical capital-intensive businesses. Instead, we lend to sponsors in non-cyclical industries such as software, insurance and residential services, because they can typically maintain cash flow levels through market cycles. Higher interest rates have put pressure on certain borrowers, especially for deals from older vintages.

What We Are Watching
An industry trend we are watching is the use of payment-in-kind (PIK). As rates only decline moderately and interest rate hedges roll off, focus on the ability for borrowers to manage their cash interest burden remains high. These borrowers are favoring structures which offer PIK flexibility. In the right situations, PIK interest may be appropriate, but will depend on the rationale for use, the business fundamentals and the underlying capital structure.

We see opportunity for growth across the diverse private credit landscape. Asset-based finance, including investment grade, is an area we believe will continue to experience outsized growth. We also think the momentum in opportunistic or hybrid capital will continue to expand. As levered borrowers look for refinancing in this higher-rate environment, we believe they will look for creative capital solutions within the private markets. Other areas we see opportunity include the unsponsored deal segment, growth companies requiring hybrid capital and real estate lending.

 
 

1 Preqin, Future of Alternatives 2029 Report. As of December 2024.
2 Preqin, Future of Alternatives 2029 Report. As of December 2024.

 
 
David Miller
David Miller
Head of Global Private Credit & Equity
 
 

“Amid the current economic environment, we continue to take a proactive approach, which includes closely analyzing companies’ earnings and free cash-flow generation.”

 
 
 
 

Important Disclosures:

This communication contains content created by separate affiliated entities of Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM) including the Morgan Stanley Research Department, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, Morgan Stanley & Co. International PLC, Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd, Morgan Stanley Capital Group Inc. and/or Morgan Stanley Asia Limited. MSIM does not create research reports in any form.  MSIM does not endorse any opinions expressed in the email. The content does not constitute an investment recommendation of MSIM, and the affiliated entities are not acting as investment advisers to any person in connection with publication of such research. Morgan Stanley Research does not undertake to advise you of changes in the opinions or information set forth in these materials.  The research is made available to clients solely for informational purposes.

The views and opinions are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change at any time due to market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. This is a general communication, which is not impartial and has been prepared solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or to adopt any specific investment strategy. The information herein has not been based on a consideration of any individual investor circumstances and is not investment advice, nor should it be construed in any way as tax, accounting, legal or regulatory advice. To that end, investors should seek independent legal and financial advice, including advice as to tax consequences, before making any investment decision.

Forecasts and/or estimates provided herein are subject to change and may not actually come to pass.

This general communication, which is not impartial, is for informational and educational purposes only, not a recommendation. Information does not address financial objectives, situation or specific needs of individual investors.

All investing involves risks, including a loss of principal. Alternative investments are speculative and involve a high degree of risk. These investments are designed for investors who understand and are willing to accept these risks. Performance may be volatile, and an investor could lose all or a substantial portion of his or her investment.

Any charts and graphs provided are for illustrative purposes only. Any performance quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Certain information herein is based on data obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable. However, we have not verified this information, and we make no representations whatsoever as to its accuracy or completeness.

This material is a general communication, which is not impartial and all information provided has been prepared solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or to adopt any specific investment strategy. The information herein has not been based on a consideration of any individual investor circumstances and is not investment advice, nor should it be construed in any way as tax, accounting, legal or regulatory advice. To that end, investors should seek independent legal and financial advice, including advice as to tax consequences, before making any investment decision.

The indexes are unmanaged and do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Any index referred to herein is the intellectual property (including registered trademarks) of the applicable licensor. Any product based on an index is in no way sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by the applicable licensor and it shall not have any liability with respect thereto.

This communication is only intended for and will only be distributed to persons resident in jurisdictions where such distribution or availability would not be contrary to local laws or regulations.

Morgan Stanley Research does not undertake to advise you of changes in the opinions or information set forth in these materials.  The research is made available to clients solely for informational purposes.

DISTRIBUTION

This material is only intended for and will only be distributed to persons resident in jurisdictions where such distribution or availability would not be contrary to local laws or regulations.

MSIM, the asset management division of Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), and its affiliates have arrangements in place to market each other’s products and services. Each MSIM affiliate is regulated as appropriate in the jurisdiction it operates. MSIM’s affiliates are: Eaton Vance Management (International) Limited, Eaton Vance Advisers International Ltd, Calvert Research and Management, Eaton Vance Management, Parametric Portfolio Associates LLC, and Atlanta Capital Management LLC.

This material has been issued by any one or more of the following entities:

EMEA

This material is for Professional Clients/Accredited Investors only.

In the EU, MSIM and Eaton Vance materials are issued by MSIM Fund Management (Ireland) Limited (“FMIL”). FMIL is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and is incorporated in Ireland as a private company limited by shares with company registration number 616661 and has its registered address at 24-26 City Quay, Dublin 2, DO2 NY19, Ireland.

Outside the EU, MSIM materials are issued by Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited (MSIM Ltd) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England. Registered No. 1981121. Registered Office: 25 Cabot Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 4QA.

In Switzerland, MSIM materials are issued by Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, London (Zurich Branch) Authorised and regulated by the Eidgenössische Finanzmarktaufsicht (“FINMA”). Registered Office: Beethovenstrasse 33, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland.

Outside the US and EU, Eaton Vance materials are issued by Eaton Vance Management (International) Limited (“EVMI”) 125 Old Broad Street, London, EC2N 1AR, UK, which is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Italy: MSIM FMIL (Milan Branch), (Sede Secondaria di Milano) Palazzo Serbelloni Corso Venezia, 16 20121 Milano, Italy. The Netherlands: MSIM FMIL (Amsterdam Branch), Rembrandt Tower, 11th Floor Amstelplein 1 1096HA, Netherlands. France: MSIM FMIL (Paris Branch), 61 rue de Monceau 75008 Paris, France. Spain: MSIM FMIL (Madrid Branch), Calle Serrano 55, 28006, Madrid, Spain. Germany: MSIM FMIL Frankfurt Branch, Große Gallusstraße 18, 60312 Frankfurt am Main, Germany (Gattung: Zweigniederlassung (FDI) gem. § 53b KWG). Denmark: MSIM FMIL (Copenhagen Branch), Gorrissen Federspiel, Axel Towers, Axeltorv2, 1609 Copenhagen V, Denmark.

MIDDLE EAST

Dubai: MSIM Ltd (Representative Office, Unit Precinct 3-7th Floor-Unit 701 and 702, Level 7, Gate Precinct Building 3, Dubai International Financial Centre, Dubai, 506501, United Arab Emirates. Telephone: +97 (0)14 709 7158).

This document is distributed in the Dubai International Financial Centre by Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited (Representative Office), an entity regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). It is intended for use by professional clients and market counterparties only. This document is not intended for distribution to retail clients, and retail clients should not act upon the information contained in this document.

This document relates to a financial product which is not subject to any form of regulation or approval by the DFSA. The DFSA has no responsibility for reviewing or verifying any documents in connection with this financial product. Accordingly, the DFSA has not approved this document or any other associated documents nor taken any steps to verify the information set out in this document, and has no responsibility for it. The financial product to which this document relates may be illiquid and/or subject to restrictions on its resale or transfer. Prospective purchasers should conduct their own due diligence on the financial product. If you do not understand the contents of this document, you should consult an authorised financial adviser.

U.S.

NOT FDIC INSURED | OFFER NO BANK GUARANTEE | MAY LOSE VALUE | NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY | NOT A DEPOSIT

Latin America (Brazil, Chile Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay)

This material is for use with an institutional investor or a qualified investor only. All information contained herein is confidential and is for the exclusive use and review of the intended addressee, and may not be passed on to any third party. This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a public offering, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell for any product, service, security and/or strategy. A decision to invest should only be made after reading the strategy documentation and conducting in-depth and independent due diligence.

ASIA PACIFIC

Hong Kong: This material is disseminated by Morgan Stanley Asia Limited for use in Hong Kong and shall only be made available to “professional investors” as defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap 571). The contents of this material have not been reviewed nor approved by any regulatory authority including the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. Accordingly, save where an exemption is available under the relevant law, this material shall not be issued, circulated, distributed, directed at, or made available to, the public in Hong Kong. Singapore: This material is disseminated by Morgan Stanley Investment Management Company and should not be considered to be the subject of an invitation for subscription or purchase, whether directly or indirectly, to the public or any member of the public in Singapore other than (i) to an institutional investor under section 304 of the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore (“SFA”); (ii) to a “relevant person” (which includes an accredited investor) pursuant to section 305 of the SFA, and such distribution is in accordance with the conditions specified in section 305 of the SFA; or (iii) otherwise pursuant to, and in accordance with the conditions of, any other applicable provision of the SFA. This publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Australia: This material is provided by Morgan Stanley Investment Management (Australia) Pty Ltd ABN 22122040037, AFSL No. 314182 and its affiliates and does not constitute an offer of interests. Morgan Stanley Investment Management (Australia) Pty Limited arranges for MSIM affiliates to provide financial services to Australian wholesale clients. Interests will only be offered in circumstances under which no disclosure is required under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) (the “Corporations Act”). Any offer of interests will not purport to be an offer of interests in circumstances under which disclosure is required under the Corporations Act and will only be made to persons who qualify as a “wholesale client” (as defined in the Corporations Act). This material will not be lodged with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

Japan

For professional investors, this material is circulated or distributed for informational purposes only. For those who are not professional investors, this material is provided in relation to Morgan Stanley Investment Management (Japan) Co., Ltd. (“MSIMJ”)’s business with respect to discretionary investment management agreements (“IMA”) and investment advisory agreements (“IAA”). This is not for the purpose of a recommendation or solicitation of transactions or offers any particular financial instruments. Under an IMA, with respect to management of assets of a client, the client prescribes basic management policies in advance and commissions MSIMJ to make all investment decisions based on an analysis of the value, etc. of the securities, and MSIMJ accepts such commission. The client shall delegate to MSIMJ the authorities necessary for making investment. MSIMJ exercises the delegated authorities based on investment decisions of MSIMJ, and the client shall not make individual instructions. All investment profits and losses belong to the clients; principal is not guaranteed. Please consider the investment objectives and nature of risks before investing. As an investment advisory fee for an IAA or an IMA, the amount of assets subject to the contract multiplied by a certain rate (the upper limit is 2.20% per annum (including tax)) shall be incurred in proportion to the contract period. For some strategies, a contingency fee may be incurred in addition to the fee mentioned above. Indirect charges also may be incurred, such as brokerage commissions for incorporated securities. Since these charges and expenses are different depending on a contract and other factors, MSIMJ cannot present the rates, upper limits, etc. in advance. All clients should read the Documents Provided Prior to the Conclusion of a Contract carefully before executing an agreement. This material is disseminated in Japan by MSIMJ, Registered No. 410 (Director of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Firms)), Membership: the Japan Securities Dealers Association, The Investment Trusts Association, Japan, the Japan Investment Advisers Association and the Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association.

 

Ce document est une communication promotionnelle.

Les utilisateurs sont invités à prendre connaissance des Conditions d’utilisation avant d’engager toute procédure, car celles-ci mentionnent des restrictions légales et réglementaires applicables à la diffusion des informations relatives aux produits d’investissement de Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

Les services décrits sur ce site Web peuvent ne pas être disponibles dans certaines juridictions ou pour certaines personnes. Merci de consulter nos Conditions d’utilisation pour de plus amples informations.


Confidentialité    •    Your Privacy Choices Your Privacy Choices Icon    •    Conditions d'utilisation

©  Morgan Stanley. Tous droits réservés.