Don’t Count on Big Gains for Bonds

Oct 2, 2024

With the likelihood of a recession falling after the Fed rate cut, investors are wondering what a “soft landing” will mean for bonds.

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • Bond investors may only see limited price gains in the face of upward pressure on long-term rates, which are already near forecast levels.
  • Potentially sticky inflation, mounting U.S. debts and deficits, and a higher “neutral rate” may all contribute to an upward bias on long-term rates.
  • Investors may diversify within fixed income in their portfolios, balancing exposure to municipal bonds, Treasuries and investment-grade credit, while exploring opportunities in emerging-market debt.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s 50-basis-point rate reduction in September has improved the odds of an economic “soft landing” that brings low inflation and solid growth. In fact, our models have shown the likelihood of achieving that soft landing have risen from about 50% to 65%, while chances of a recession have dropped to 25%.

 

Stock investors have cheered the rate cut, sending the S&P 500 Index up more than 20% for the year to date, with a lofty price-to-earnings ratio above 22. However, it remains to be seen whether companies can meet Wall Street’s ambitious estimates of 13%-14% earnings growth for 2025—roughly double the normal year-over-year pace.

 

For bond investors, meanwhile, the challenge is different in a soft-landing scenario. Traditionally, they would expect to see bond yields fall (and prices increase) across various maturities in the early innings of Fed rate cuts as recessionary dynamics take hold. However, yields have risen since the Fed’s September rate cut, especially on bonds with longer maturities. Economic growth remains reasonably robust and asset prices already reflect investor expectations of aggressive monetary easing. With that, the 10-year Treasury yield, at 3.75%, is already in line with Morgan Stanley Research’s 2025 forecast.

 

The upshot: Investors may want to avoid positioning too aggressively for bond price gains from here, even though bonds generally rise in price when rates decline. Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee sees at least three factors that could put upward pressure on longer-term yields, potentially limiting the usual gains that might be expected when the U.S. central bank is cutting the Fed funds rate.

Rates in a Soft Landing

While the Fed's easing cycle likely raises soft-landing probabilities, it presents a distinct challenge for bonds. Here's why.

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  1. 1
    Underestimated Inflation Risk

    While investors may be optimistic that high inflation is in the rearview mirror, the rate at which inflation is falling has moderated. Meanwhile, “super-core” inflation—a gauge that focuses on the prices of services—is still up nearly 4.5% year over year. In addition, history shows that inflation flares like that of the post-COVID period are typically followed by an echo boom. 

  2. 2
    Rising U.S. Debts and Deficits

    Regardless of who wins the White House in November, it seems the country will see continued deficits and aggressive growth in federal debt relative to GDP. Based on a recent analysis of current proposals by both candidates, along with their likelihood of being adopted, we may see federal debt increase by as much as 10% over the next decade. (Generally, a rising federal debt means the government is borrowing more, increasing the supply of government bonds; all else equal, this should lead to lower bond prices and higher yields.)

  3. 3
    Recalibration of the ‘Neutral Rate’

    Economists use the term “neutral rate” to describe the estimated short-term interest rate at which monetary policy would be neither contractionary nor expansionary. Over the past 15 years, the neutral rate was at or below 1%. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell continues to signal higher-for-longer rates, with the Fed’s latest summary of economic projections pointing to the U.S. central bank cutting its benchmark rate to about 3.4%, versus market pricing of around 2.8%. We may see rates normalize toward a neutral level that approximates long-term real growth and inflation expectations, which may have negative implications for equity valuations. Generally, a higher neutral rate may also lead to lower bond prices.

What Should Investors Do Now?

Given the current backdrop, investors should avoid counting too much on bond price gains.

 

Consider reducing excess exposure to ultra-short and short-term bonds in your portfolio, while adding longer-duration opportunities for coupon and yield lock-ins.

 

In terms of the broader role of fixed income in your portfolio, actively balance exposure to municipal bonds, Treasuries and investment-grade credit, while exploring opportunities to invest in emerging-market debt as the U.S. dollar potentially weakens.

 

This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Weekly report from September 30, 2024, “Rates in a Soft Landing.” Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy. Listen to the audiocast based on this report. 

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