Insights
Navigating Higher Inflation: An Empirically-Based Multi-Asset Approach
|
Global Multi-Asset Viewpoint
|
• |
April 30, 2018
|
April 30, 2018
|
Navigating Higher Inflation: An Empirically-Based Multi-Asset Approach |
With core inflation in the U.S. reaccelerating in the past six months and nearly approaching the Fed’s target of 2%, questions about the implications of this trend have become topical. If long-dormant inflation makes a lasting comeback, this would indeed represent a major regime shift in markets. Here, we explore empirical financial asset behavior in periods of higher inflation and lay out our preferred approach for constructing and managing a multiasset inflation protection portfolio.
While not a foregone conclusion, it seems likely that inflation in the U.S. and globally has seen its low for this cycle. The output gap appears closed in 48% of the global economy, which suggests inflation is set to accelerate cyclically.1 Many of the structural disinflationary influences that have been present over the past three decades appear to have largely played out or even reversed. Furthermore, the possibility of dovish policy errors during the next downturn appear to have increased, as policymakers and academics have begun to debate aggressive policy tools like price-level targeting and government sponsored jobs programs.