Insight Article Desktop Banner
 
 
Takeaways & Key Expectations
  •  
December 05, 2024

Equity Market Commentary - December 2024

Insight Article Mobile Banner

Takeaways & Key Expectations

Equity Market Commentary - December 2024

Equity Market Commentary - December 2024

Share Icon

December 05, 2024

 
 

The following views and perspectives are formed by the work of the Applied Equity Advisors team in managing assets for investors.

 
 
  1. Phase three of the bull market has begun: The optimism phase.

    It’s uncanny to me how each phase has lined up about sequentially with the number of years since the October 2022 bear market low:
    1. October 2022-October 2023: the pessimism phase.
    2. October 2023-October 2024: the skepticism phase.
    3. October 2024: the optimism phase.

    While I would love to regale you with the facts behind why the first two phases were so consistent with history, I won’t.

    That’s looking backward, and we need to focus on the “optimism phase”.

  2. Before I do that, I want to answer the #1 inquiry we receive: “Where do I find your strategies?”
  3. The answer: MSIM.com

    Either look to the right on this page for the links or, using the search finder in the middle of the MSIM.com landing page, type in “US Core,” “Global Concentrated” or “Global Core.”

    What bears repeating: I am not a strategist.

    I provide timely high-level market commentary to keep our investors up to date on our views. Thank you to those who have invested in our products.

  4. As I have articulated often in the past, money market funds have been the fastest growing asset category over the last year and since the bear market bottom.1

  5. “Why should I buy equities when I get 5% risk-free?” was the most common question we received to our bullish call over the past year. That’s because, in the pessimism and skepticism phases of a bull market, 5% looks attractive.

    However, in the optimism phase, 5% does not look nearly as compelling.

    That’s why I have been convinced that flows would turn positive (which they have recently2) and investors would become less enamored with cash as we moved into this next phase.

    The pushback to my flow argument is completely logical:

    Household stock holdings are up 50% since 2019. Despite $7 trillion in money markets, household cash levels are up only 38% during this period3 So, investors’ equity allocations are actually higher. And therefore, they are not going to move any of that $7 trillion into stocks…or so goes the doubter’s argument.

    Mathematically that’s correct.

    If investors always acted rationally then money would not come off the sidelines.

    However, if investors cumulatively acted rationally, why did we experience net liquidations from equities in 2023 after the S&P 500 sold off -25% in 2022?4

    The historical 1-year return of equities off -25% declines is 2x the long-term average annual return.5 (a great chart we sent in the October 2022 Slimmon’s TAKE.)

    If investors always acted logically, they would have piled into stocks then and not have hit the panic button.

    To me, the argument against cash being reallocated screams of someone who has never sat on the front lines as a financial advisor or experienced the daily behavioral side of investing.

    My view: The equity market is not a rational beast. Yet its irrationality is completely consistent.

    That is why I continue to believe that as we enter the optimism phase, investors will use their cash to chase speculation. It’s what happens in the optimism phase.

  6. Here is the good news: I still see 2025 as a very good year for equities.

    The bad news is it just might pull forward the good results from 2026 onward.

    In other words, the final phase, “the euphoria phase”, is the danger zone. In that phase, there is simply too much confidence in the expected returns from equities. Historically, that precedes the next bear market.

    I worry we have three powerful forces that might propel us faster to that final stage:
    1. Massive amounts of liquidity on the sidelines. (see #3)
    2. Federal Reserve target to lower rates.
    3. Incoming President Trump’s pro-growth policies.

    But don’t get too far out in front. It’s still only December 2024 and we are just entering the optimism phase.

  7. Here is why I am confident that euphoria is not immediately around the corner:
  8. Our performance this year has as much to do with what we do not own as with what we do own.

    As we have articulated all year, Applied Equity has been underweight the defensive sectors of the market. Most notably, consumer staples and health care.

    Again, it’s for behavioral reasons.

    Early in bull markets, investors tend to flock to “downside risk mitigation. ”Why? Because it’s the “pessimism phase,” a time when losing less consumes investors.

    Hence early in bull markets, defensive stocks tend to get expensive relative to the market and relative to their history.

    But the longer bull markets last, investors become less interested in “downside risk mitigation/losing less” and more hungry for “upside opportunities/making money.”

    That’s when the valuation premium for defensives starts to erode.

    This has already started to happen. Consumer staples and health care have woefully lagged the S&P 500 year-to-date.6 However, stocks in other sectors that are perceived as economically resilient have yet to underperform meaningfully.

    Therefore, as our co-portfolio manager and chief quant Phillip Kim reminds the team weekly, the defensive valuation relative to the market has yet to get cheap enough to be consistent with previous “euphoric phases.”

    As always, we are agnostic to style bets. We do expect that at some point we will be adding more to defensives. It’s simply too early, in our opinion.

  9. Today we sit between President-elect Trump’s election and inauguration. Hence, the front pages/lead stories/research reports are filled with speculation on the impact of DC politics on investing outcomes.

  10. Therefore, it might be worth reminding everyone:

    The annualized return of the S&P 500 under both President Obama and President Trump (first term) was exactly the same: +16.3%.7

    Safe to say that Barack Obama and Donald Trump (first term) pursued very different policies and styles as Presidents. Seemingly, they could not have been more different. Yet the facts are the facts.

    Is it just unnecessary complexity and confusion?

    Maybe so.

  11. Finally, I was reminded recently of a couple of my favorite investment axioms that, in my experience, have stood the test of time and I thought are worth repeating:
    1. Simplicity, while rarely intellectually satisfying, is hard to beat in the investment business.8
    2. The optimist looks detached from reality and superficial, whereas the pessimist sounds like they know what they are talking about.9

Andrew

 
 

1 Bloomberg.
2 As of November 19, 2024, $240 billion has gone into Equity ETFs over the last 3 months. Strategas.
3 RBA Advisors.  November 21, 2024.
4 From October 2022 until October 2023, investors pulled $-243 billion out of equity ETFs and mutual funds.  Strategas.
5 S&P 500 since 1950. Hamilton Lane.
6 Bloomberg.
7 Bespoke. As measured from inauguration day until next President’s inauguration day.
8 Strategas.
9 Morgan Housel.

 

 
andrew.slimmon
Head of Applied Equity Advisors Team
Applied Equity Advisors Team
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

RISK CONSIDERATIONS
Diversification does not eliminate the risk of loss. There is no assurance that a portfolio will achieve its investment objective. Portfolios are subject to market risk, which is the possibility that the market values of securities owned by the portfolio will decline and may therefore be less that what you paid for them. Market values can change daily due to economic and other events (e.g. natural disasters, health crises, terrorism, conflicts and social unrest) that affect markets, countries, companies or governments. It is difficult to predict the timing, duration, and potential adverse effects (e.g. portfolio liquidity) of events. Accordingly, you can lose money investing in this portfolio. Please be aware that this portfolio may be subject to certain additional risks. In general, equities securities’ values also fluctuate in response to activities specific to a company. Stocks of small- and medium-capitalization companies entail special risks, such as limited product lines, markets and financial resources, and greater market volatility than securities of larger, more established companies. Investments in foreign markets entail special risks such as currency, political, economic, market and liquidity risks. Illiquid securities may be more difficult to sell and value than publicly traded securities (liquidity risks). Non-diversified portfolios often invest in a more limited number of issuers. As such, changes in the financial condition or market value of a single issuer may cause greater volatility.

DEFINITIONS
The indexes are unmanaged and do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Any index referred to herein is the intellectual property (including registered trademarks) of the applicable licensor. Any product based on an index is in no way sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by the applicable licensor and it shall not have any liability with respect thereto. The S&P 500® Index measures performance of the large cap segment of the U.S. equities market, covering approximately 75% of the U.S. market, including 500 leading companies in the U.S. economy. The Russell 1000 Index is an index of approximately 1,000 of the largest companies in the U.S. equity market. The Russell 1000 is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index. It represents the top companies by market capitalization. The Russell 1000 typically comprises approximately 90% of the total market capitalization of all listed U.S. stocks. The Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the performance of the large- cap growth segment of the US equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with relatively higher price-to-book ratios, higher I/B/E/S forecast medium term (2 year) growth and higher sales per share historical growth (5 years). The Russell 1000® Value Index measures the performance of the large- cap value segment of the US equity universe. It includes those Russell. 1000 companies with relatively lower price-to-book ratios, lower I/B/E/S. The MSCI World Index is a free float adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the global equity market performance of developed markets. The term “free float” represents the portion of shares outstanding that are deemed to be available for purchase in the public equity markets by investors. The performance of the Index is listed in U.S. dollars and assumes reinvestment of net dividends. The MSCI Europe Index captures large and mid cap representation across 15 Developed Markets (DM) countries in Europe. The Shanghai Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted stock market index designed to track the price performance of all A-shares and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Standard deviation is a measure that is used to quantify the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of data values. The MSCI China Index captures large and mid cap representation across China A shares, H shares, B shares, Red chips, P chips and foreign listings (e.g. ADRs).

IMPORTANT INFORMATION
There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will work under all market conditions, and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long- term, especially during periods of downturn in the market.

A separately managed account may not be appropriate for all investors. Separate accounts managed according to the particular Strategy may include securities that may not necessarily track the performance of a particular index. Please consider the investment objectives, risks and fees of the Strategy carefully before investing. A minimum asset level is required.

For important information about the investment managers, please refer to Form ADV Part 2.

The views and opinions and/or analysis expressed are those of the author or the investment team as of the date of preparation of this material and are subject to change at any time without notice due to market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Furthermore, the views will not be updated or otherwise revised to reflect information that subsequently becomes available or circumstances existing, or changes occurring, after the date of publication. The views expressed do not reflect the opinions of all investment personnel at Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM) and its subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively “the Firm”), and may not be reflected in all the strategies and products that the Firm offers.

Forecasts and/or estimates provided herein are subject to change and may not actually come to pass. Information regarding expected market returns and market outlooks is based on the research, analysis and opinions of the authors or the investment team. These conclusions are speculative in nature, may not come to pass and are not intended to predict the future performance of any specific strategy or product the Firm offers. Future results may differ significantly depending on factors such as changes in securities or financial markets or general economic conditions.

This material has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other third-party sources believed to be reliable. However, no assurances are provided regarding the reliability of such information and the Firm has not sought to independently verify information taken from public and third-party sources.

This material is a general communication, which is not impartial and all information provided has been prepared solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or to adopt any specific investment strategy. The information herein has not been based on a consideration of any individual investor circumstances and is not investment advice, nor should it be construed in any way as tax, accounting, legal or regulatory advice. To that end, investors should seek independent legal and financial advice, including advice as to tax consequences, before making any investment decision.

The indexes are unmanaged and do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Any index referred to herein is the intellectual property (including registered trademarks) of the applicable licensor. Any product based on an index is in no way sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by the applicable licensor and it shall not have any liability with respect thereto.

This material is not a product of Morgan Stanley’s Research Department and should not be regarded as a research material or a recommendation.

The Firm has not authorized financial intermediaries to use and to distribute this material, unless such use and distribution is made in accordance with applicable law and regulation. Additionally, financial intermediaries are required to satisfy themselves that the information in this material is appropriate for any person to whom they provide this material in view of that person’s circumstances and purpose. The Firm shall not be liable for, and accepts no liability for, the use or misuse of this material by any such financial intermediary.

This material may be translated into other languages. Where such a translation is made this English version remains definitive. If there are any discrepancies between the English version and any version of this material in another language, the English version shall prevail.

The whole or any part of this material may not be directly or indirectly reproduced, copied, modified, used to create a derivative work, performed, displayed, published, posted, licensed, framed, distributed or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without the Firm’s express written consent. This material may not be linked to unless such hyperlink is for personal and non-commercial use. All information contained herein is proprietary and is protected under copyright and other applicable law.

DISTRIBUTION

This material is only intended for and will only be distributed to persons resident in jurisdictions where such distribution or availability would not be contrary to local laws or regulations.

MSIM, the asset management division of Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), and its affiliates have arrangements in place to market each other’s products and services. Each MSIM affiliate is regulated as appropriate in the jurisdiction it operates. MSIM’s affiliates are: Eaton Vance Management (International) Limited, Eaton Vance Advisers International Ltd, Calvert Research and Management, Eaton Vance Management, Parametric Portfolio Associates LLC, and Atlanta Capital Management LLC.

EMEA:

This material is for Professional Clients/Accredited Investors only.

In the EU, MSIM and Eaton Vance materials are issued by MSIM Fund Management (Ireland) Limited (“FMIL”). FMIL is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and is incorporated in Ireland as a private company limited by shares with company registration number 616661 and has its registered address at 24-26 City Quay, Dublin 2 , DO2 NY19, Ireland.

Outside the EU, MSIM materials are issued by Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited (MSIM Ltd) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England. Registered No. 1981121. Registered Office: 25 Cabot Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 4QA.

In Switzerland, MSIM materials are issued by Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, London (Zurich Branch) Authorised and regulated by the Eidgenössische Finanzmarktaufsicht ("FINMA"). Registered Office: Beethovenstrasse 33, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland.

Outside the US and EU, Eaton Vance materials are issued by Eaton Vance Management (International) Limited (“EVMI”) 125 Old Broad Street, London, EC2N 1AR, UK, which is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Italy: MSIM FMIL (Milan Branch), (Sede Secondaria di Milano) Palazzo Serbelloni Corso Venezia, 16 20121 Milano, Italy. The Netherlands: MSIM FMIL (Amsterdam Branch), Rembrandt Tower, 11th Floor Amstelplein 1 1096HA, Netherlands. France: MSIM FMIL (Paris Branch), 61 rue de Monceau 75008 Paris, France. Spain: MSIM FMIL (Madrid Branch), Calle Serrano 55, 28006, Madrid, Spain. Germany: MSIM FMIL Frankfurt Branch, Große Gallusstraße 18, 60312 Frankfurt am Main, Germany (Gattung: Zweigniederlassung (FDI) gem. § 53b KWG). Denmark: MSIM FMIL (Copenhagen Branch), Gorrissen Federspiel, Axel Towers, Axeltorv2, 1609 Copenhagen V, Denmark.

MIDDLE EAST

Dubai: MSIM Ltd (Representative Office, Unit Precinct 3-7th Floor-Unit 701 and 702, Level 7, Gate Precinct Building 3, Dubai International Financial Centre, Dubai, 506501, United Arab Emirates. Telephone: +97 (0)14 709 7158).

This document is distributed in the Dubai International Financial Centre by Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited (Representative Office), an entity regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). It is intended for use by professional clients and market counterparties only. This document is not intended for distribution to retail clients, and retail clients should not act upon the information contained in this document.

This document relates to a financial product which is not subject to any form of regulation or approval by the DFSA. The DFSA has no responsibility for reviewing or verifying any documents in connection with this financial product. Accordingly, the DFSA has not approved this document or any other associated documents nor taken any steps to verify the information set out in this document, and has no responsibility for it. The financial product to which this document relates may be illiquid and/or subject to restrictions on its resale or transfer. Prospective purchasers should conduct their own due diligence on the financial product. If you do not understand the contents of this document, you should consult an authorised financial adviser.

U.S.

NOT FDIC INSURED | OFFER NO BANK GUARANTEE | MAY LOSE VALUE | NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY | NOT A BANK DEPOSIT

Canada: For use only with “Permitted Clients” under Canadian Law and may not be used with the general public. This presentation is communicated in Canada by Morgan Stanley Investment Management Inc. (“MSIM”), which conducts its activities in Canada pursuant to the international adviser exemption and International Investment Fund Manager Exemption. This presentation does not constitute an offer to provide investment advisory available. MSIM may only advise separately managed accounts of “Permitted Clients” and may only manage accounts which invest in non-Canadian issuers. “Permitted clients” as defined under Canadian National Instrument 31-103 generally include Canadian financial institutions or individuals with $5 million (CAD) in financial assets and entities with at least $25 million (CAD) in net assets. Permitted Clients may only invest in a separately managed account referenced in this presentation by entering into an investment management agreement with MSIM, of which this presentation is not a part. Materials which describe the investment expertise, strategies and/or other aspects of MSIM-managed separately managed accounts may be provided to you upon request for your consideration of the available investment advisory services offered by MSIM. MSIM and certain of its affiliates may serve as the portfolio manager to separately managed accounts described in this presentation and may be entitled to receive fees in connection therewith.

LATIN AMERICA (BRAZIL, CHILE COLOMBIA, MEXICO, PERU,
AND URUGUAY)

This material is for use with an institutional investor or a qualified investor only. All information contained herein is confidential and is for the exclusive use and review of the intended addressee, and may not be passed on to any third party. This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a public offering, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell for any product, service, security and/or strategy. A decision to invest should only be made after reading the strategy documentation and conducting in-depth and independent due diligence.

ASIA PACIFIC:

Hong Kong: This material is disseminated by Morgan Stanley Asia Limited for use in Hong Kong and shall only be made available to “professional investors” as defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap 571). The contents of this material have not been reviewed nor approved by any regulatory authority including the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. Accordingly, save where an exemption is available under the relevant law, this material shall not be issued, circulated, distributed, directed at, or made available to, the public in Hong Kong. Singapore: This material is disseminated by Morgan Stanley Investment Management Company and should not be considered to be the subject of an invitation for subscription or purchase, whether directly or indirectly, to the public or any member of the public in Singapore other than (i) to an institutional investor under section 304 of the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore (“SFA”); (ii) to a “relevant person” (which includes an accredited investor) pursuant to section 305 of the SFA, and such distribution is in accordance with the conditions specified in section 305 of the SFA; or (iii) otherwise pursuant to, and in accordance with the conditions of, any other applicable provision of the SFA. This publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Australia: This material is provided by Morgan Stanley Investment Management (Australia) Pty Ltd ABN 22122040037, AFSL No. 314182 and its affiliates and does not constitute an offer of interests. Morgan Stanley Investment Management (Australia) Pty Limited arranges for MSIM affiliates to provide financial services to Australian wholesale clients. Interests will only be offered in circumstances under which no disclosure is required under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) (the “Corporations Act”). Any offer of interests will not purport to be an offer of interests in circumstances under which disclosure is required under the Corporations Act and will only be made to persons who qualify as a “wholesale client” (as defined in the Corporations Act). This material will not be lodged with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

Japan: For professional investors, this material is circulated or distributed for informational purposes only. For those who are not professional investors, this material is provided in relation to Morgan Stanley Investment Management (Japan) Co., Ltd. (“MSIMJ”)’s business with respect to discretionary investment management agreements (“IMA”) and investment advisory agreements (“IAA”). This is not for the purpose of a recommendation or solicitation of transactions or offers any particular financial instruments. Under an IMA, with respect to management of assets of a client, the client prescribes basic management policies in advance and commissions MSIMJ to make all investment decisions based on an analysis of the value, etc. of the securities, and MSIMJ accepts such commission. The client shall delegate to MSIMJ the authorities necessary for making investment. MSIMJ exercises the delegated authorities based on investment decisions of MSIMJ, and the client shall not make individual instructions. All investment profits and losses belong to the clients; principal is not guaranteed. Please consider the investment objectives and nature of risks before investing. As an investment advisory fee for an IAA or an IMA, the amount of assets subject to the contract multiplied by a certain rate (the upper limit is 2.20% per annum (including tax)) shall be incurred in proportion to the contract period. For some strategies, a contingency fee may be incurred in addition to the fee mentioned above. Indirect charges also may be incurred, such as brokerage commissions for incorporated securities. Since these charges and expenses are different depending on a contract and other factors, MSIMJ cannot present the rates, upper limits, etc. in advance. All clients should read the Documents Provided Prior to the Conclusion of a Contract carefully before executing an agreement. This material is disseminated in Japan by MSIMJ, Registered No. 410 (Director of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Firms)), Membership: the Japan Securities Dealers Association, The Investment Trusts Association, Japan, the Japan Investment Advisers Association and the Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association.

 

This is a Marketing Communication.

It is important that users read the Terms of Use before proceeding as it explains certain legal and regulatory restrictions applicable to the dissemination of information pertaining to Morgan Stanley Investment Management's investment products.

The services described on this website may not be available in all jurisdictions or to all persons. For further details, please see our Terms of Use.

Not FDIC Insured—Offer No Bank Guarantee—May Lose Value
Not Insured By Any Federal Government Agency—Not A Deposit

Subscriptions    •    Privacy & Cookies    •    Your Privacy Choices Your Privacy Choices Icon    •    Terms of Use

©  Morgan Stanley. All rights reserved.

Morgan Stanley Distribution, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC.