What’s in Store for Real Rates in the U.S.? |
It is well understood that the recent ‘everything bubble’— in which valuations for most major financial assets have reached historical extremes—is predicated on low real rates and the perception of their sustainability. Low real rates have also been viewed as an important driver of newly emergent trends, including U.S. dollar weakness and a bullish outlook for commodities. Any interruption to this low real rates regime could threaten valuations, and thus represents a major risk to the current market environment. We believe a further moderate back up in real rates is possible later in 2021 in the context of the strong U.S. economic growth that we expect this year. However, over the medium-term, that is over the next 2-3 years, this increase in real rates may prove fleeting as longer-term budgetary and debt dynamics will likely require real rates to be even lower than they are today.1
The U.S. 10-year TIPS (Treasury inflation-protected securities) yield, at -65 basis points today, is only moderately above its level in the third quarter of 2020, despite a substantial improvement in global growth which has historically been an important driver. Today’s global composite PMI reading of 52.9, for example, would suggest that the U.S. 10-year real yield should be about +34 basis points, or about +100 basis points above current levels.2 The current break with the historical relationship between global growth and real yields to a significant degree reflects an altered perception of economic policy, future constraints of budget and debt dynamics, as well as a downward reassessment of trend growth.