October 15, 2024
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Time for some high quality defence? |
At the end of June, we expressed our concern that the markets were at high multiples of high earnings, as they were “dominated by the twin beliefs in the invulnerability of the U.S. economy and the massive impact of GenAI”. At the time the MSCI World Index was on 18.5x forward earnings, and those earnings were expected to surge at 13% in 2025 and 10% in 2026.1
Two months on, after a burst of volatility, we are roughly back to where we were. The market is slightly higher, as the forward multiple has inched up to 18.7x, with double-digit earnings growth still expected. However, the July-August squall did provide us some comfort about the defensive nature of our global portfolios in the downturn.
There were a few weeks during the third quarter when the market seemed to share our worries. The second quarter results season triggered questions about the returns on capital that the “hyperscalers” were earning on their fast-accelerating generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) capital expenditure, causing some air to escape the GenAI balloon during July. There was also a general growth scare in early August, given weak U.S. job numbers and the Services PMI (purchasing managers’ index) joining the Manufacturing PMI in contraction territory. On top of this, a 12% single-day collapse in the Japanese market on the back of an unwind of the yen carry trade and a violent spike in the VIX Index2 to an intra-day peak of 60 added to the general sense of malaise. According to the New York Times, Google searches for the word “recession” rose to levels comparable to the Global Financial Crisis. At the trough on 5 August, the MSCI World Index was down 7% from its July peak, with the mighty Nvidia off by over a quarter, though the hysteria would have suggested that the fall was much worse.1
Calm has returned over the last few weeks. The MSCI World Index has bounced back to all-time highs, and the VIX Index has dropped back to normal calm levels at 15.3 Even the bruised Japanese market has recovered close to its level at the start of August. Admittedly the “tech-y” sectors have not bounced back quite as far; for instance, Nvidia has recovered “only” around 60% of its recent fall, leaving it up a “mere” 140% in 2024 so far.1
This recovery means that the concerns we expressed at the end of June remain. As mentioned earlier, the market remains expensive, at a high multiple of forward earnings, with the S&P 500® Index looking particularly stretched at over 21x, and the assumed double-digit growth in those earnings requires margins to improve further from what are already record levels.1 While an imminent recession looks unlikely, economies worldwide are facing negative economic surprises, according to the Bloomberg indices.3 It is also far from clear that the recent spurt of optimism about interest rate cuts, with nine or 10 pencilled in by the end of 2025, is fully supported by the inflation and wage data, or is compatible with the kind of economy which will drive double-digit earnings growth. Overall, the benign scenario is priced in again as though the scare never happened.
In addition, despite the mild underperformance of the “Magnificent Seven” so far this quarter, the market still remains extremely concentrated, with 27% of the S&P 500® Index accounted for by just five companies, while the U.S. makes up more than 70% of the global index.1 Owning the index does not offer the diversification that many think it does. The situation has reached the point that FTSE Russell and S&P Dow Jones, two of the main index providers, are contemplating capping the weights of individual stocks in the index, which would effectively make them active managers by default.
The good news is that our global portfolios behaved as they should have during this sell-off, appearing resilient in the face of fears around both GenAI and the overall economy. Looking at the period from 10 July – where the tech names peaked – to 5 August – the trough amid the Japan carry trade panic – the MSCI World Index fell 7%. During this period, our global portfolios were actually UP by around 1%, demonstrating their ability to provide reduced downside participation.
Much of the portfolio’s outperformance was “given back” as the market bounced back over the rest of August, though the portfolios are still ahead of the index for the quarter so far. Looking forward, if the bulls are right, with a continuation of the AI boom and the bumper earnings growth seemingly assumed by the market, then the portfolio’s relative performance is likely to be mediocre. However, if there is either a cooling of GenAI frenzy or a failure to deliver fast earnings growth for the market, both of which are distinctly possible, then a portfolio delivering resilient earnings at a reasonable valuation may well offer some high quality “defence”, as it did during the recent squall. There are only two ways of losing money in equities, if the earnings go away or the multiple goes away. Right now, both risks look elevated for the market, but less so for our “defensive” portfolios.
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Managing Director
International Equity Team
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