Insights
Inflation Outlook – One Year Later
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Global Multi-Asset Viewpoint
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July 31, 2021
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July 31, 2021
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Inflation Outlook – One Year Later |
In May of 2020 we argued that the pandemic and the public health and economic policy responses to it would likely prove inflationary.1 Among the reasons we highlighted then, the one that has been playing out most notably recently is the supply shortfall relative to a stimulus-boosted surge in demand. Eventually the “bottlenecks” that currently plague the global economy will be resolved as production catches up to consumption and inventories are rebuilt, and inflation will likely moderate from the currently-elevated pace. In this note we consider whether the underlying trend still points to elevated inflation. Our conclusion is that the unusually tight labor market, housing boom, and a surge in commodity prices have the potential to maintain inflation at a higher rate. Many longer-term factors also remain supportive, especially the recently adopted more aggressive decarbonization targets in the U.S. and many economies. We also consider the main risks such as a slowing China and the peak in U.S. policy stimulus this year.