Insights
Momentum Ruled In 2024, But Reversal Likely In 2025
|
Global Multi Asset Thought of the Week
|
• |
December 23, 2024
|
December 23, 2024
|
Momentum Ruled In 2024, But Reversal Likely In 2025 |
Bottom Line
2024 has experienced one of the top momentum runs of the past thirty years. Historically, such strong performance has led to a near-full reversal in performance in the subsequent year, though the middling valuations of momentum stocks temper that conclusion somewhat. Odds are still 2-1 against momentum stocks for 2025.
Thus far in 2024, momentum has ruled more than any other factor. Sure, high growth and high quality stocks have outperformed low growth and junkier stocks, but high momentum stocks have exploded higher (relative to low momentum stocks). The current momentum run is one of the top momentum runs since 1995 (see Display 1), with high momentum stocks outperforming low momentum by +28% year-on-year as of Dec 11th, a two standard-deviation event.
We define momentum as the quintile of stocks with the highest 12-month risk-adjusted returns vs. the quintile with the lowest returns.1 So what does the current crop of high momentum stocks look like?
Extreme performance (top decile), as we have seen in the past year, historically bodes poorly for future performance of high momentum stocks, most decisively if one looks out 6-12 months.
Bottom line: 2024 has experienced one of the top momentum runs of the past thirty years. Historically, such strong performance has led to a near-full reversal in performance in the subsequent year, though the middling valuations of momentum stocks temper that conclusion somewhat. Odds are still 2-1 against momentum stocks for 2025.
|
Head of Global Multi-Asset Team
Global Multi-Asset Team
|