Wealth Management — November 10, 2023
What Happened in the Markets?
- The S&P 500 Index rose 1.6% Friday to end the day at 4,415.24, having gained 15.0% thus far in 2023.
- All 11 S&P 500 sectors were higher on the day, as Information Technology (2.6%), Communication Services (1.7%), and Consumer Discretionary (1.7%) outperformed the S&P 500 Index. Industrials (1.3%), Materials (1.2%), Real Estate (1.1%), Energy (1.1%), Financials (1.0%), Consumer Staples (0.7%), Health Care (0.6%), and Utilities (0.5%) underperformed.
- By the 4:00 p.m. equity market close, the US 10-year Treasury yield was unchanged at 4.62%; WTI crude oil prices increased 2.0% to $77.27 per barrel; and gold decreased 1.1% to 1,936.75.
- US equities finished higher, as Treasury market volatility subsided, and momentum from contrarian sentiment signals and seasonality buoyed investors’ risk appetite.
- The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey fell 3.4 points for November, below expectations, to the lowest level since May. Respondents’ long-term inflation expectations rose to the highest level since 2011.
- While Fed Chair Powell and other policymakers continue to echo a hawkish stance, bullish equity investors remain optimistic that interest rates have peaked.
S&P 500 Price vs. 50, 100, 200 Daily Moving Averages
The Global Investment Committee’s Tactical Asset Allocation Reasoning
Equities
US: We remain uncertain that forward earnings estimates are accurately discounting the most recent developments of a strong US dollar, rising oil prices, maturing US fiscal stimulus and an increasingly tapped-out US consumer. Additionally, we expect that Fed actions in 2024 may result in a “higher-for-longer” rate scenario. Our preference is for defensive and secular-growth equities with quality balance sheets.
International Equities (Developed Markets): The mix of high and sticky inflation, existential risks associated with Russia/Ukraine and the European Central Bank's position that it has limited tools to help, suggest that the odds of recession are over 50%. Developed market exposure should skew toward commodities and materials exporters, especially those in the Asia/Pacific region, including Japan.
Emerging Markets: Recent softness in China, including macro uncertainty and deflationary pressures, along with growing opacity around policy direction, have caused concern for the country’s growth path. With global growth concerns potentially mounting, we have neutralized a previous overweight to emerging markets.
Fixed Income
US Investment Grade: While markets had aggressively priced the Fed's hawkish rhetoric, recent bank concerns have brought in pricing of rate cuts through early 2024. We are taking a more balanced risk-reward approach and have added to large underweight positions. With continued Quantitative Tightening ahead, execution risk remains elevated, as do the risks from sticky services inflation. However, bonds still offer decent relative value and the potential for portfolio hedging. Moreover, we expect equity-fixed income correlations to decrease in the event of an earnings recession.
International Investment Grade: Central banks’ hawkish pivots have prompted a material move in global nominal rates. While timing and catalysts are still hazy, negative-yielding debt has largely vanished in recent months. Prospects are brightening for fixed income investors, with opportunities to invest in local currencies that are expected to strengthen against the US dollar. Nevertheless, our benchmark and tactical asset allocation model continue to allocate 0% to this asset class.
Inflation-Protected Securities: TIPS yields have moved up, as realized inflation remains near a 40-year high and geopolitical uncertainties add pricing pressures. Even with real yields now positive, valuation is not compelling in comparison to US investment grade fixed income. Moreover, our benchmark and tactical asset allocation model continue to allocate 0% to this asset class.
High Yield: We have eliminated our exposure to the equity-like asset class to reduce equity beta of portfolios. High yield bonds rallied aggressively after the unprecedented provision of liquidity from the Fed and fiscal stimulus from Washington. However, there appears to be limited upside potential and much downside risk to investing in riskier products, given the current market environment. Moreover, our benchmark and tactical asset allocation model continue to allocate 0% to this asset class.
Alternatives
REITS: With real interest rates now positive and services inflation remaining quite sticky, we would need to be cautious and selective in adding to this asset class. For now, we remain underweight.
Commodities: Global central banks have successfully brought commodity prices back to late-2021 levels. Supply chains for goods have been close to restored, which has helped to relieve some pressures on inflation coming from industrial metals and auto parts. That said, structural disruption in energy and global agricultural commodities remains severe and may take multiple quarters to cure. Semiconductor trade has been down since the CHIPS Act was enacted.
Hedged Strategies (Hedge Funds and Managed Futures): The current environment appears constructive for hedge fund managers who are good stock-pickers and can use leverage and risk management to amplify returns. We prefer very active and fundamental strategies, especially high quality, low beta, low volatility and absolute return hedge funds.
Morgan Stanley & Co.’s Key Market Forecasts
Market data provided by Bloomberg.
Dallas Federal Manufacturing Index is released every month. It reflects overall business conditions and activity in the Texas' manufacturing sector.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): A price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry.
NASDAQ Composite Index: A broad-based capitalization-weighted index of stocks in all three NASDAQ tiers: Global Select, Global Market and Capital Market.
S&P 500 Index: The Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 widely held, large-capitalization US stocks.
US Trade-Weighted Dollar Index: A weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the 17US dollar against a subset of the broad index currencies that circulate widely outside the US.
